Talroo's Frontline Worker Index
Frontline Worker Index
August 2024 Summary: Shifts in Resumes, Job Postings, and Wage Trends
The frontline labor market continues to evolve as employers maintain their grip on hiring practices, demanding more qualifications and offering fewer incentives for workers.
• Resume Index Drop: The most striking trend this month is the sharp plummet in the resume index, which fell by 91 points. This continues the ongoing trend of job seekers holding back, likely discouraged by the increasing requirements for positions and a sense of uncertainty about the current labor market.
• Posting Index Increase: Conversely, the job posting index climbed by 65 points, indicating that demand for workers remains strong despite fewer candidates actively seeking jobs. Employers, particularly in industries like trucking and retail customer service, are ramping up hiring, even as job seekers are slow to respond.
• Wage Trends: While wages are still up year-over-year, with an average increase of $1.97, they fell by $0.52 (2.5%) compared to July 2024. This month-over-month decline could be a sign that wage growth is slowing.
Frontline Worker Index Explorer
To explore Talroo’s data and search findings for recruiting and hiring, use the Industry Explorer below. You can view nationwide trends or focus on specific states. Additionally, you can narrow your search by selecting industries or specific job titles. Happy searching!
Frontline Worker Trends: September 2024 Hiring Slowdown and Labor Market Imbalance
The 2024 September hiring surge, a pivotal moment in the labor market, is projected to be significantly slower than in previous years, with hiring growth rates halved compared to 2023. Let’s explore the key drivers behind this trend and its impact on various industries.
Slower Growth in Job Postings and Resume Uploads
- Job Postings on the Rise: While job postings have steadily increased in 2024, the pace has slowed considerably. In August 2023, job postings grew by 31%, but in August 2024, this growth dropped to just 15%. This slower pace persists across most sectors, with notable variations depending on the industry. Employers are eager to fill roles but are contending with a reduced labor supply, especially in industries like hospitality and food services, which are hardest hit by labor shortages.
- Decline in Resume Submissions: Resume uploads on popular platforms have been consistently declining for the last five months. This trend is especially pronounced in industries requiring specialized skills or in-person work. The FWI shows that job seekers are not applying at the same rate, likely due to increased job requirements, as many frontline roles now demand higher education and more on-the-job experience. This shift in employer expectations contributes to the supply-demand mismatch, with fewer qualified candidates available for positions with higher requirements.
Factors Contributing to the Slowdown
- More Stringent Job Requirements: Employers increasingly demand more qualifications, degrees, and experience, especially for roles that traditionally did not require them. According to the FWI, this trend has discouraged many potential job seekers, leading to lower resume submissions across sectors. The elevated job requirements are a significant barrier to filling open roles, exacerbating the labor supply and demand gap.
- Industry-Specific Impacts: The slower September surge has disproportionately affected Hospitality and food services. These sectors have long been characterized by high quit rates (often hovering around 4%) and high turnover, reaching as high as 19%. Businesses in these industries face persistent challenges filling positions, particularly as workers seek more stable or better-paying opportunities in other fields. This labor shortage and the need for in-person roles perpetuate a cycle of high turnover and slower hiring.
Impact of the 2024 Election
The upcoming 2024 election, a pivotal event with the potential to reshape the labor market, is another factor contributing to the hiring slowdown. Employers are exercising caution as they await potential policy changes on wages, taxes, and immigration, which could significantly impact labor costs. Many companies delay hiring decisions until there is more clarity post-election, adding another layer of complexity to the hiring slowdown.
Implications for Employers and Job Seekers
The mismatch between job supply and demand challenges employers and job seekers. Employers in sectors like hospitality must rethink their hiring strategies to accommodate the growing demand for flexibility and higher qualifications. On the other hand, job seekers may find themselves in a strong negotiating position, particularly in industries with high demand and low supply, as employers are eager to fill critical roles.
Recommendations for Navigating the Labor Market
- For Employers: Employers should enhance job offerings by providing competitive wages, benefits, and flexible working conditions. Reducing qualification barriers for certain roles or investing in training for new hires can help attract a broader range of candidates.
- For Job Seekers: Job seekers, especially those in frontline and essential roles, should focus on upskilling to meet the higher requirements now demanded in many sectors. With businesses facing labor shortages and uncertain hiring trends, workers can leverage their skills and experience for better compensation or job mobility.
As we move through the remainder of 2024, employers and job seekers must recognize the paramount importance of staying flexible and adaptive to navigate the evolving labor market.
External Sources: International Labour Organization, HR Daily Advisor, Employ America, The Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Frontline Worker Index Data & Findings
The Frontline Worker Index (FWI) offers data insights on supply and demand, job titles, wages, work schedules, education and experience requirements, and the most valued benefits for frontline roles. Understanding these metrics helps HR professionals and recruiters create better strategies for attracting, hiring, and retaining top talent in a competitive job market.
Supply & Demand
The FWI compares new resumes and new job posts to show the balance between job seeker supply and employer demand.
The supply index, or the Resume Posting index, has plummeted 91 points over the last month. Alternatively, the demand index, or the Job Posting index, has continued to rise and is up 65 points month over month.
Job Titles
Continuing the discussion on supply and demand from the graph above, this section shows the demand from frontline job seekers using Talroo-associated job boards and search engines, and the supply, which consists of job posts from employers advertising through Talroo.
Supply: Job Seeker Activity
Demand: Employer Job Posts
Half of the top job searches on Talroo-associated platforms focus on how frontline and essential workers want to work, rather than what they want to do, aligning with previous index findings, though the percentage has slightly decreased. Despite “Work from Home” remaining the top query, its relevance continues to decline, indicating it’s less of a priority for employers. Companies that clearly define what workers seek in job descriptions are more likely to attract well-suited candidates.
Wages & Pay
This dataset shows the average wage and sign-on bonus for jobs listed on the Talroo Ad Platform, with states like California and New York, which have strict salary transparency laws, being more represented, potentially skewing averages higher. States with fewer transparency requirements have less data representation. The sign-on bonus index only includes jobs that mention a starting bonus, and the percentage of jobs offering bonuses is available in the “Offers Bonus” section. Wages reflect experience and other job requirements, with higher wages often corresponding to more experience and less remote work.
Schedules, Hours, & Remote Work
This dataset shows the indexed Work from Home, Part-Time, and Full-Time positions listed by clients on the Talroo Ad Platform. It’s important to note that some positions may be listed as part-time or full-time based on availability or store needs, but this doesn’t necessarily affect the overall numbers.
The trends in the Remote Work or Work from Home index match the “Return to the Office” movement.
- Work from Home positions have dropped 40 points year over year for frontline and essential workers.
- The trends in the Remote Work or Work from Home index match the “Return to the Office” movement.
One industry that is bucking this trend is the Customer Service and Sales and Support roles in the Retail space – they are seeing a resurgence of Work from Home roles, to the tune of a 137 point YoY and 134 MoM increase.
Education & Experience
This index includes Talroo clients who list jobs that don’t require education or experience. For example, a cashier position that doesn’t need a high school diploma or prior experience would be part of this index.
Both indexes have continued to decline since March 2023, with the “No Degree Required” index dropping by seven points and the “No Experience Required” index dropping by three this month.
Explore the graphs below to see how these requirements vary across different states or industries:
Trends in Education & Experience Over Time
“No Degree Required” Index
“No Experience Required” Index
Benefits
Frontline and essential workers play a critical role in keeping many industries and services running smoothly. Understanding the key benefits they value is essential for successful recruitment and retention. The following image shows the average sign-on bonus for positions in the Talroo ecosystem, as well as the percentage of positions that offer a sign-on bonus.
Data Source & Copyright: Talroo, Inc.
The Frontline Worker Index Report: Methodology
Talroo processes an average of 26 million job posts every month, with over 187 million data points adding to this index directly. This extensive dataset is sourced first-party directly from Talroo, reflecting a broad spectrum of industries and geographic locations. Some job posts are comprehensive while others are less detailed; our goal is to encourage companies to be more transparent and intentional with their job posts to improve data quality and utility.
The FWI reflects information from a wide range of sectors, powered by Talroo’s robust dataset and supplemented with Public Insight Data. The report includes detailed graphs and data points, offering a clear view of how different industries are managing tight labor markets and legislative changes for frontline roles. It’s important to note that our data does not reflect all positions equally; some job posts may represent a need for one hire, while others might represent a need for 1,000.
Index numbers are based on January 2022, a point of relative stability in a post-pandemic world for frontline workers.
This set of indices is an invaluable resource for HR professionals, recruiters, business leaders, and investors seeking to understand and navigate the complex landscape of frontline and essential workforces. It provides actionable insights that can help benchmark past and current performance, as well as forecast near-term industry trends and outlook.
View the April 2024 FWI Report here →
View the June 2024 FWI Report here →
View the July 2024 FWI Report here →
